diff --git a/docs/workshop/bmc.md b/docs/workshop/bmc.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..95b7f76 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/workshop/bmc.md @@ -0,0 +1,89 @@ +# Business Model Canvas — travelledger + +> Converged canvas from a double-diamond workshop (diverge → converge). +> Five role-based sub-agents produced divergent options (3 strategic directions, +> 6 personas, 4 revenue variants, 5 stacks). This is the *converged* view, with +> the strongest divergent alternatives noted inline. All numbers are illustrative +> assumptions to be validated. + +## Positioning decision (converged) +**Launch as Direction A (neutral travel ledger), sequence into Direction B (booking +commerce).** Rationale: lowest barrier to entry, no partner dependency at launch, +validates the core habit (will users log travel data?) before monetization pressure. +Commissions (Direction B) have 10x revenue potential but need trust + scale → earn it +as a neutral tool first, then introduce booking as convenience, not extraction. + +--- + +## 1. Customer Segments +- **Frequent leisure travelers** — track budget, preserve memories, avoid budget disasters. +- **Business travelers / consultants** — reimbursements, separate personal vs. business, cancellation deadlines. (High retention if workflow-integrated.) +- **Family trip organizers** — coordinate multi-person itineraries, split costs, store confirmations. +- **Digital nomads** — visa/tax-day tracking, multi-currency, long-term narrative. +- **Travel agents (B2B, non-obvious)** — manage client itineraries, monitor deadlines across suppliers. +- *(Deferred)* SMB corporate travel managers (Direction C) — revisit if B2C shows organic business adoption. + +## 2. Value Propositions +- **One calm place** for the whole trip: flights, hotels, trains, expenses, QR codes. +- **Cancellation Guardian**: proactive alerts before deadlines (the defensible, emotional pain point). +- **Post-trip statistics**: where the money actually went, across currencies. +- **AI assist (later)**: auto-categorize expenses, parse booking emails/PDFs into itinerary. +- **Purchase opportunities (later)**: book hotels/tours in-app with affiliate convenience. + +## 3. Channels +- SEO ("travel budget template", "expense tracker for trips"), referral ("invite a travel buddy"), + micro-influencers (nomad YouTubers, family-travel Instagram), OTA post-purchase partnerships + ("Save this booking to travelledger"), Reddit/expat/FB groups, later app stores (iOS/Android). +- **Viral loop:** shared trip page → non-users see a beautiful itinerary with QR + expense summary + → "get alerts / add your expenses free" → they invite their network. + +## 4. Customer Relationships +- **Self-serve freemium** (table stakes) + **AI concierge "Trip Guardian"** (the moat: proactive + deadline alerts, auto-categorization). B2B account management deferred for travel-agent segment. + +## 5. Revenue Streams +| Model | Price (illustrative) | Role | +|-------|----------------------|------| +| Freemium subscription | Free: 1–5 trips/yr; Premium $4.99/mo or $39/yr; Pro $9.99/mo (family/multi-user) | **Primary (≈60%)** | +| Per-trip pass | $2.99–$5.99/trip | Secondary (≈25%) — captures episodic users | +| Booking commission | Hotels 3–8%, tours 8–12%, insurance 15–25%, flights 1–3% | Tertiary upside (≈15%) | +| B2B licensing (deferred) | $8–15/user/mo; agent white-label $30–50/mo | Post-PMF | + +## 6. Key Resources +- Mobile-first web app (Next.js + Capacitor), cloud backend (Supabase/Firebase), + encrypted attachment storage (R2/S3), OCR + LLM for parsing/categorization, + push infrastructure for deadline alerts. + +## 7. Key Activities +- App + AI development, user acquisition (SEO/content), partner integration (OTAs, + banks via Open Banking), compliance (GDPR, affiliate disclosure), data/analytics. + +## 8. Key Partners +- **OTA aggregators** (Booking.com, Expedia, Skyscanner) — inventory + affiliate tracking. +- **Hotels / tour ops** (GetYourGuide, Viator) — direct rates, higher-margin commissions. +- **Airlines / rail** — data, booking links, status. +- **AI/LLM providers** — parsing + categorization (provider-agnostic interface). +- **Banks / cards** (Revolut, Wise, Plaid/PSD2) — auto expense capture. +- **Travel-insurance** providers — high-margin embedded quotes. + +## 9. Cost Structure +| Category | Bootstrapped (early) | Funded (scale) | +|----------|----------------------|----------------| +| Cloud/hosting | $200–800/mo | $5k–20k/mo | +| Storage (QR/images) | $50–200/mo | $1k–5k/mo | +| AI/LLM inference | $100–500/mo | $10k–50k/mo | +| Dev (founder+contractors) | $5k–15k/mo | 8–12 FTEs | +| Support / compliance | ~$0–2k / ~$500 | $15k–25k / $10k–30k | +| CAC | SEO $5–15, paid $25–60, partner $10–40 | similar, higher volume | + +## Key risks (cross-role) +- **Churn / seasonality** — travel is episodic → annual plans, trip passes, reserves. +- **Commission clawbacks & API deprecation** — diversify partners; no partner >25% of revenue. +- **Chargeback exposure** — use affiliate networks (they are merchant of record) early; avoid MoR status. +- **Commission cash-flow lag (30–90 days)** — keep 3-month runway; don't count as immediate revenue. +- **QR extraction variance** across vendors — LLM parsing, not regex. + +## Day-one metrics +1. **Paid conversion rate** (target 3–5% of MAU) +2. **Trip completion rate** (>60% of started trips) +3. **CAC payback period** (<6 months)